Authors: N. V. Bradbury, W. S. Hart, F. A. Lovell-Read, J. A. Polonsky, R. N. Thompson
Year: 2023
Journal: Journal of the Royal Society Interface
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0374
Summary#
This paper presents a new method for calculating the probability that an infectious disease outbreak has ended using contact tracing data.
Key Findings#
- The traced transmission method can calculate end-of-outbreak probabilities exactly when who-infected-whom data is available.
- Applying the method to Ebola virus disease and Nipah virus infection data shows it would declare the outbreak over earlier than the Nishiura method.
Methodology#
- Study Type: Mathematical Modeling
- Sample Size: Not specified in the text
- Geographic Focus: Not specified in the text
- Time Period: Not specified in the text
Topics#
Epidemiology, Mathematical Modeling, Infectious Disease
Relevance#
The paper’s findings could help public health policymakers determine when an infectious disease outbreak has ended and may allow for quicker relaxation of control interventions.