Authors: N. V. Bradbury, W. S. Hart, F. A. Lovell-Read, J. A. Polonsky, R. N. Thompson
Year: 2023
Journal: Journal of the Royal Society Interface
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0374
Summary#
This paper presents a method for calculating the exact end-of-outbreak probability using contact tracing data, which can inform public health policymakers about when an infectious disease outbreak has finished.
Key Findings#
- The traced transmission method can calculate the end-of-outbreak probability exactly if who-infected-whom data is available (e.g., from contact tracing studies).
- Applying the traced transmission method to Ebola virus disease and Nipah virus infection outbreaks would have determined that the outbreak was over earlier than the existing Nishiura method.
Methodology#
- Study Type: Theoretical/Modeling
Topics#
Mathematical Modeling, Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Relevance#
The traced transmission method may allow for quicker relaxation of control interventions at the end of an outbreak with only a limited risk of outbreak resurgence.
Source#
[Download PDF](/pdfs/clinical-epidemiology/rsif.2023.0374 (1).pdf)