Scoping future outbreaks: a scoping review on the outbreak prediction of the WHO Blueprint list of priority diseases

Authors: Nils Jonkmans, Valérie D’Acremont, Antoine Flahault

Year: 2021

Journal: BMJ Global Health

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006623

Summary

This paper conducts a scoping review on the available evidence for predicting future outbreaks of diseases on the WHO Blueprint list, including Ebola, Marburg virus, Zika virus, Lassa fever, Nipah and Henipaviral disease, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and Disease X.

Key Findings

• 5 major prediction methods emerged; the most frequent being spatio-temporal risk maps predicting outbreak risk periods and locations through vector and climate data.
• Stochastic models were predominant. Rift Valley fever was the most predicted disease.

Methodology

• Study Type: Scoping Review

Topics

Epidemiology, Virology

Relevance

This paper identifies methods that could be further investigated for the prevention of Blueprint diseases and COVID-19 outbreaks.

Source

View the entire paper: File:Bmjgh-2021-006623.pdf