Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data
Authors: N. V. Bradbury, W. S. Hart, F. A. Lovell-Read, J. A. Polonsky, R. N. Thompson
Year: 2023
Journal: Journal of the Royal Society Interface
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0374
Summary
This paper presents a new method for calculating the probability that an infectious disease outbreak has ended using contact tracing data.
Key Findings
- The traced transmission method can calculate end-of-outbreak probabilities exactly when who-infected-whom data is available.
- Applying the method to Ebola virus disease and Nipah virus infection data shows it would declare the outbreak over earlier than the Nishiura method.
Methodology
- Study Type: Mathematical Modeling
- Sample Size: Not specified in the text
- Geographic Focus: Not specified in the text
- Time Period: Not specified in the text
Topics
Epidemiology, Mathematical Modeling, Infectious Disease
Relevance
The paper's findings could help public health policymakers determine when an infectious disease outbreak has ended and may allow for quicker relaxation of control interventions.