Projecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens
Authors: Anita Lerch, Quirine A. ten Bosch, Maïna L’Azou Jackson, Alison A. Bettis, Mauro Bernuzzi, Georgina A. V. Murphy, Quan M. Tran, John H. Huber, Amir S. Siraj, Gebbiena M. Bron, Margaret Elliott, Carson S. Hartlage, Sojung Koh, Kathyrn Strimbu, Magdalene Walters, T. Alex Perkins, Sean M. Moore
Year: 2024
Journal: BMC Medicine
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02405-1
Summary
The paper develops a modeling framework to assess sustainable vaccine manufacturing needs and potential impact of outbreak response for four priority pathogens: Lassa virus, Nipah virus, MERS coronavirus, and Rift Valley virus.
Key Findings
- Annual vaccine regimen requirements for a population-wide strategy range from >670,000 (Lassa virus) to 1,190,000 (Rift Valley fever virus)
- Reactive vaccination typically prevents fewer than 10% of cases due to low R0 values
Methodology
- Study Type: Modeling Study
Topics
Epidemiology, Vaccinology, Zoonoses
Relevance
The paper provides a methodology for estimating vaccine stockpile needs and geographic distribution of demand under various outbreak response scenarios, which is crucial for Nipah research.